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Publications

Pan-European High-Resolution Downscaling Using Deep Learning (October 2025)Link to article.
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations (October 2025)Link to article.
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study (October 2025)Link to article.
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions (September 2025) Link to article.
Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections (August 2025)Link to article.
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study (July 2025)Link to article.
Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? (July 2025) Link to artilce.
CMIP7 Data Request: Ocean and Sea Ice Priorities and Opportunities (July 2025)Link to article.
Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations (June 2025)Link to article.
Principles for guiding future research on resilience and tipping points (March 2025)Link to article.
Noise-shaped hysteresis cycles of the AMOC under increasing CO2 forcing (February 2025) Link to article.
The impact of a weakened AMOC on European heatwaves (January 2025) Link to article.
Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections (February 2025) Link to article.
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study (2025)Link to article.
Separating CO2 emission from removal targets comes with limited cost impacts (2025)Link to article.
Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models (2025)Link to article.
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways (2025)Link to article.
Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios (2025)Link to article.
Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century (2025)Link to article.
emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves (2025)Link to article.
Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? (2025)Link to article.
The impact of a weakened AMOC on European heatwaves (January 2025)Link to article.
Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm (2024)Link to article.
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review (2024)Link to article.
Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy (2024)Link to article.
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3 (2024)Link to article.
A global analysis of historical and future changes in Mediterranean climate-type regions (2024)Link to article.
Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis (2024)Link to article.
No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability. (2024)Link to article.
Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world’s Mediterranean climate regions (2024)Link to article.
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization (2024)Link to article.
Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming (2023)Link to article.
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations (2023)Link to article.

The list with resources and publications from OptimESM is continuously updated. Missing something? Send an email to: optimesm@smhi.se.

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